Sunday, June 28, 2009

I hate people who hate Moneyball without understanding Moneyball

Usually I do not look to dismantle those from the land of the internets (especially one just asking a question on yahoo answers).

This being said...really, really bad.

What kind of Dynasty could the Oakland A's have had with Zito, Hudson, Mulder, Harden, and Haren?

I think the question speaks for itself, but I'll include the details:

I was looking back at the Atheletics in the early part of this decade, and they had a minnie (sic) division dynasty with Zito, Mulder, and Hudson anchoring their pitching staff. But then as we all know of Billy Beane's "Money Ball" theory, they unloaded them off in 2004.

Well, then they had Rich Harden and Dan Haren anchoring their pitching staff and they got as far as the ALCS back in 2006.

What could they have had if they kept all five of those guys?

It's nasty and crazy to think of a team with those kind of pitchers!

Not only that, but they had Houston Street in the bullpen.

Man, I don't know how Billy Beane messed that one up.

Okay, I'll break down this guy one little piece at a time:

The initial question. Yeah, that rotation would be pretty sweet in 2005, maybe. One small issue: MARK MULDER WAS PART OF THE DAMN DEAL TO BRING DANNY HAREN TO OAKLAND.

And in trading for Mulder, the A's lost one good season. In return, they got 3 very good years of Danny Haren, the currently 23 year old Daric Barton (who's .293/.406/.448 in his minor league career, hooray) and Kiko Calero, who gave 2 useful years in the bullpen. Then upon trading Haren once he became too pricey for the A's to afford, got a deal for 6 minor leaguers, including 3 in their current top 6 prospects. HOORAY. WONDEFUL. AWESOME.

So Mulder -> lot of good young players who will be effective and cost controlled in the near future.

This crazyballs mcgee continues on by wishing he still had the other 4 pitchers.

Combined salary of Zito/Hudson/Haren/Harden: $38.8 million
Oakland Athletics payroll: $62.31 mil.

So yeah, let's just add 60% extra to the current payroll, and get these four guys:
Haren: 6-5, 2.25 ERA, 0.815 WHIP, 104 K, 14 BB, 11 HR (really good)
Harden: 4-4, 4.95 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 67 K, 30 BB, 13 HR (not so good, kind of pricey, got Josh Danielson (23) and Sean Gallagher (23) to get rid of him).
Zito: 4-7, 4.55 ERA, 1.416 WHIP, 66 K, 40 BB, 11 HR (equally bad, really expensive)
Hudson: Yet to pitch in 2009, really, REALLY expensive.

So yeah, that'd be a not-so-awesome $38.8 million for even the Yankees and their 284 kabajillion dollar payroll (and only 1 kabajillion of that is dedicated to the R&D to clone Ruth and Gehrig). THIS IS THE ATHLETICS. Keith Law has them 3rd in farm system rankings. They have 7 of the top 100 prospects according to baseball america (this included guys like Gordan Beckham at the time).

Yes, he didn't get much awesomeness for Hudson, but once again, the man makes $15.5 mil in 2009 and has not pitched an inning.

Billy Beane doesn't trade these guys cause moneyball says sign only fat white guys who walk a lot and Jesus-loving guys with weird, underhand deliveries. IT'S CAUSE HIS TEAM DOESN'T HAVE THE MONEY TO THROW HUGE CONTRACTS AROUND.

Assuming no miracle run in 2009, the A's made the postseason 5 times in the 2000's. That would currently have them tied with the much better funded Angels and Red Sox. For a team still paying some minor leaguers in food stamps, that's not too bad.

So yes, Billy Beane has "messed up" to the tune of making some low risk, high reward one year deals to guys like Nomar, Orlando Cabrera, and Jason Giambi, and they've all performed below expectation. Matt Holliday isn't working out, but protip: they gave up a reliever for him, something I assure you they have PLENTY of in the minors, and some organization filler. Odds are, he'll spin Holliday for something nice, too.

A fanboy jumps in with this diarrhea of the mouth:

im an a's fan and i was thinking the exact same thing. you forgot blanton too. a's could have the best pitching staff in the al if billy beane hadn't traded them for minor league prospects. someones got to knock some sense into billy beane and tell him its not about the moneyball anymore obviously

First off, awesome grammar, I don't feel like (sic)ing myself to death here. Second off...

Traded by the Oakland Athletics to the Philadelphia Phillies for Adrian Cardenas (minors), Matt Spencer (minors) and Josh Outman.

Blanton, 2009: 4-4, 5.06 ERA, 83 2/3 IP, 1.422 WHIP, 77 K, 26 BB, 17 HR, $3,700,000, not getting less expensive.

Outman, 2009 majors: 4-1, 3.48 ERA, 67 1/3 IP, 1.158 WHIP, 53 K, 25 BB, 9 HR, $400,000. (serious note, why the hell is this guy not getting ROY consideration, or at least more of it?)
Cardenas, 2009 minors (AA-AAA): 320 PA, .307/.381/.423, middle infielder, 21 years old.

This, to jonesy mcjones here, is a BAD thing Beane did.

So without further wait, let's go through our superstar, superawesomo 2009 Oakland A's-in-mind-only if these guys were GM:

C: Ramon Hernandez ($7,500,000)
1B: Jason Giambi ($4,000,000)
2B: Ray Durham ($7,500,000 in 2008)
3B: Eric Chavez ($11,500,000, got hurt)
SS: Miguel Tejada ($14,811,414)
LF: Matt Stairs ($1,625,000, this would actually be good value)
CF: Johnny Damon ($13,000,000)
RF: Jermaine Dye ($11,500,000)
DH: Jeremy Giambi ($2,000,000 last go in the majors)

SP: Mark Mulder/Dan Haren
SP: Barry Zito
SP: Rich Harden
SP: Tim Hudson
SP: ?????

CL: Huston Street

And of course with the weakest farm system in the minors.

So yep, a lot of awesome money on that team. Too bad Beane traded it away.

Edit: Feel free to view a different version of my irrationally angry dismantling of this question. jdr0317.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Red Sox trade rumors for Jeff Francoeur

Short post, really all I need to sum this thought up is: