Showing posts with label mom's basement. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mom's basement. Show all posts

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Jon Heyman: Still hates Blyleven, still hates stats

Ah, yes, the cure to all insomnia; an article about Jon Heyman's little world view of the Hall of Fame.

I'm too tired to give a witty into, here it is.

Hall of Fame or Hall of Shame? My current votes on Steroid Era stars

Okay, so we're going to talk about McGwire, and Bonds, and Clemens, and Sosa, and maybe A-Rod, maybe Manny, right? Because I mean, we're talking about the steroid era, and these are some of the real posterchildren of it...

Hall of Fame voting is a tricky thing.

It's always been a tricky thing, and it's gotten trickier since new statistics (or even new ways to look at statistics) can suggest that different values be placed on different players. I saw Bert Blyleven in the press dining area Sunday at Yankee Stadium, and it reminded me how tricky it is. I haven't voted for Blyleven yet, and have explained my position a couple times. A few folks with blogs didn't like me not voting for Blyleven, or didn't like the way I explained it. I have been called names over this decision, and I won't detail my reasoning again here, as I don't want to incite anyone.

Wait, we're back to your pathelogical hate of Blyleven again? Seriously, I could go on and on, but check out this page, then this page, and make a real case on why player A was better. Jon Heyman's normal case for it: make lots of shit up, immediately attack those who will disagree. Works when opponents are stuck typing about Heyman on blogs.

Wait, there's more:

Blyleven has become the greatest example of a tough Hall call that has become emotional and even gotten nasty in some cases. Generally speaking, at the heart of Blyleven's case is the value one places on statistics. Those who favor him admire all his statistical achievements, which are admittedly many, and they believe that his numbers are proof of his greatness.

And his statistics are very good. Better than the already enshrined Don Sutton. Much better than Jack Morris. And his playoff statistics were great.

Those who do not vote for him make more of a qualitative judgment about his impact, and place his standing below the line for enshrinement.

Blyleven only mistake in his career was playing on too many crappy teams. Idiot should've magically willed his teams Eckstein-style to glory.

I don't want to get too deep into all the pros and cons regarding Blyleven now. I just mention him as an example of a tough call.


So to start an article on the steroid era, we take the first two paragraphs to bash Blyleven. Can anyone who reads this blog please email me or something as to why Heyman and other writers have such an out on Blyleven? Or is this just them being stubborn and hopelessly ignorant to new research? I would love to learn.

In any case, the Hall calls are about to get much trickier and much tougher than Blyleven. In fact, there is a whole era of tough calls coming. There are so many tough ones ahead that Blyleven may come to be seen as mere child's play.

There is a lot to think about when considering players in the Steroid Era. These calls won't only be about numbers. There are value judgments to be made about cheating, and possibly about how much the cheating helped particular players.

And finally, here we go.

That's all I really wanted to cover here, the rest of this article doesn't really bug me, just how the PR department of Scott Boras, Inc. always seems to be ready to lay into Blyleven's career with unsubstanciated "qualitative" reasons.

Note to Heyman: When you view men using made up facts about their "makeup", you tend to do things like:

Allow a guy who won something once in the mid 90's on a loaded team to tank your team to the tune of 1-4 in the final 5 weeks

or you

Trade your star PG for a 6' SG with a 42.5% FG rate*

or you

give a guy $50,000,000 over 5 years for one catch he made

This all being said, Jon Heyman would probably make a terrific GM for the Giants or Nationals.


*Yes I know it frees up a lot of cap room for the Pistons. But what are they going to do with the money? Sign Carlos Boozer? For $20 mil / yr?

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Why crappy closers need to never, ever blog

Hi everyone.

*crickets chirp*

Talking to myself? Well fine, SCREW YOU TOO.

But seriously, baseball is entering a dark time. A time where, thanks to recent discoveries about A-Rod and Manny, have further dealt a blow to logic, reason, science, etc. A time where part time blogging, former full time punching bag closers named Todd Jones can theorize about something so idiotic as...

The re-emergence of smallball is a welcome trend

...
no, no it isn't.

The research has been done over, and over, and over again. Out-ball (or as some call it, small ball) is bad. Giving up outs is bad. This is proof.

RED ALERT, MATH COMING

E(Runs|Runner on first, no out) = 0.93784. E(Runs|Runner on 2nd, 1 out) = .74077.
E(Runs|Runner on 2nd, no out) = 1.08644. E(Runs|Runner on 3rd, 1 out) = .97619.

Noticing a pattern? Giving up outs = giving up runs in the long term.
Do that 51 times in a season (sound like a lot? Colorado led MLB with 90 (!!!!!!!!!!!!) in 2008) and you essentially give up a win.

So no, smallball is not welcome. Smallball is why so many people had mancrushes on Vince Coleman in the 80's. And in case you missed it, the 80's weren't exactly on the forefront of offensive strategy.

But enough of me, let's get to the real entertainment:

Is there any wonder why stolen bases are up this season? Homers are down, and small ball is the new vogue thing.

Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford, who leads the majors with 21 steals, stole six bases in a game last week and had a nine-game stolen base streak that came to an end Thursday. What Crawford did let the cat out of the bag, so to speak. Guys like Denard Span, Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore and Juan Pierre and looking to run. And they are starting to become a more important to their offenses than ever before.

Okay, before I start...really, Todd Jones? Really?

(as of 5/14's games)
Crawford: .329/.390/.448 117 OPS+
Span: .299/.372/.380 105 OPS+
Granderson: .257/.333/.493 112 OPS+
Sizemore: .227/.308/.400 82 OPS+
Pierre (meh): .383(!)/.439(!!!!!!)/.483(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) 139 OPS+ (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

So 4 of the guys you mentioned are top tier, young defenders having everywhere from good to very good offensive seasons using nothing but hitting rate stats. One (Sizemore) has kind of sucked so far in 2009, but a lot of that can be attributed to his .269 BABIP, compared to his career .321. He'll be fine once things normalize (and they will). And Pierre, well, his BABIP is .390, vs. a career .312. And for "small ball", he's 5 for 7 and has 1 sac hit in 67 PA's.

The rise and fall of the steroid era in Major League Baseball has shifted the interest back to bunting, baserunning, hitting and running, and even stealing home (yeah, that is a shout-out to Jacoby Ellsbury). We're on the verge of the home run -- and the home-run hitter -- not being as big a concern as the little guy.

Fear the small guys.

I really cannot believe a former pitcher would say this. Seriously, look at this:

We're on the verge of the home run -- and the home-run hitter -- not being as big a concern as the little guy.

Let that sink in. Throughout absolute HISTORY, pitchers have not thought this way. If they did, I would think that 1978 Yankee leadoff hitter Mickey Rivers would have gotten more than 3 IBB's.

*cue Luis Tiant circa 1978*

Tiant: Mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mickey Rivers, coach

Zimmer: What's the matter, Luis?

Tiant: Can't I just walk him so I can face Reggie Jackson sooner?

Zimmer: No, you cannot.

Tiant: But what if he puts a curse on us, you know, making us pre-destined to wear pinstripes one day in the near or semi-distant future?

Zimmer: Won't happen, El Tiante. Don't worry.

And also, guess what's been the walk off play in two world series? A Home run. Guess what else was a walkoff play? A Stolen base (courtesy of Babe Ruth. Yes, Babe Ruth. One run game, 1926 WS, Ruth and his 55% steal rate in 1926 went for it. With 119 OPS+'ing Bob Meusel at the dish. With Lou Gehrig on deck. SMALL BALL).

And since we've discussed Crawford's stealing penchant, let's compare it versus the rest of his hitting statistics using Tom Tango's Linear Weights:

*MATH ALERT #2 OF BLOG POST*

Player Single Double Triple HR Walk IBB HBP Sac Out SB CS RC RC/27
Crawford '09 34 10 2 1 13 0 2 0 97 22 0 26.083 7.26




























As shown, Crawford's been pretty productive in 2009. In 159 PA's, he's created 26 runs according to linear weights, or a roster of him would make 7.26 runs / game.

Guess how much of that has to do with steals.

Guess.

Go on.

I'll give 3 seconds.

3

2

...

1 1/2

...

1 1/4

...

1

ok.

22* .193 (the historical value of a steal according to data) = 4.246. Or 16.33% of his run value. People want to nitpick one flashy part of a guy's game and lump him into some crappy group. It's like saying Lebron James and Nate Robertson are equals because they can both perform flashy dunks. It's insane.

Where was I again? I've completely lost myself. Oh yeah.

Each and every day this season, there is more emphasis being put on each of them. Some of the best players when it comes to small ball: Granderson, Sizemore, Johnny Damon, David DeJesus, Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal, Ian Kinsler, Nate McLouth, Jose Reyes, Brian Roberts, Jimmy Rollins, Ichiro Suzuki, Alfonso Soriano, Chone Figgins.

These guys move the ball around, hit the gaps on command and work the ball around the infield. And they all can fly.

Augh, augh, augh, augh, and AUGH.

All these players have in terms of value is the ability to...work the ball around the infield?

Granderson's hit 73 HR's since 2006, while also playing one of the best CF's in the game.
Same for Sizemore, except he's bombed 91 since 2006. Johnny Damon's done a lot of ball moving in 2009: moving right into the bleachers. DeJesus has been awful, as has Drew and Furcal. Ian Kinsler and Nate McLouth rely on small ball, really? Are we watching the same sport?

I just don't have the energy to dissect the rest of these guys. Tell my family I love them. And not use my life insurance policy for a condo down the cape.

A bold prediction: These types of small-ball players will pass the three-run-homer guys in terms of importance over the next 12 months.

I really have no words for this statement, I think the emoticon is :O!!!!

Yes, teams without huge hitting and run output win titles, and not as rarely as many may think. But it is never, EVER, because they can put on the hit and run better than anyone else. It's usually because of some other force of awesome on their roster (2005 White Sox - pitching, 2008 Rays - defense and bullpen). These teams do not win because they score less, they win DESPITE scoring less.

There will be a bigger emphasis on speed, and it will be just like the '80s all over again.

At least that means it will be another decade before the Yankees win the series, I guess.

P.S. Part of me secretly wonders if Todd Jones just wishes he got to face more prolific out-makers in his time in MLB. That 1.413 career WHIP out of the pen isn't exactly Rivera-esque.


SUPER AWESOME EDIT ALERT 7/17/09

Pre-ASB Stolen Bases in 2008 average per team: 58
Pre-ASB Stolen Bases in 2009 average per team: 56

STOLEN BASES ARE UP, SMALLBALL, MOVE EM ALONG, DON'T WAIT FOR THE 3 RUN HOME RUN, DON'T CLOG UP MY BASES.